Over the last 7 days, Michigan has seen record breaking new daily COVID-19 rates as well as huge increases in hospitalization rates due to the virus.  The rise in cases and hospitalizations may already be concerning to many people, but according to experts and projections, the surge in new cases will continue to rise for at least the next month.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer said "Unless we get our act together right now, we could be hitting our daily peak of deaths in Michigan come Christmas" in a Thursday afternoon press conference.  This statement is backed up by a couple different COVID-19 pandemic projections from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and healthdata.org.

The CDC took 36 different models for COVID-19 daily infection rates, deaths, and other criteria and combined the data.  Many of the models show a peak in daily deaths sometime between Christmas and the first week of January but a few predict the peak being even earlier in just a few weeks and then cases and deaths dropping towards the end of the month and in to January.  And a few models even predict that the cases and deaths will continue to skyrocket through the end of the month and the peak won't be until sometime in January.

Healthdata.org developed a few different models that have different predicted outcomes based on mask usage percentages, restrictions easing, and removing all restricting mandates.  These models have wildly different outcomes with a peak in early December if masks are being used nearly universally.  A peak around Christmas is the current project (December 27th or 28th) if everything we are doing now to prevent the spread stays the same.  And finally a peak of mid February if we removed all restrictions and mandates.

It's truly hard to predict what will actually happen in the coming months because a lot of it depends on whether or not the public starts to take this more seriously.  Many Michiganders and Americans will likely die needlessly if people stop wearing their masks, social distancing, and decide to gather in large groups for the holidays.

The most forgiving predictions have us peaking somewhere between 40-60 deaths a day whereas some of the more severe predictions peg that number at around 250 deaths a day.


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